Us Politics · resolved market
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224ba5ae7427449f6dbbcb48e9eaff4d350f0cd9df4c663207ec00e833e37a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 2c | 16,194$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.88 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 38c | 4,866$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 38c | 2,051$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.62 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 38c | 1,288$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.39 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 63c | 999.6$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 61c | 839.29$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.1 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 57c | 614.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 62c | 299.34$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 37c | 288.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 8c | 250.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 39c | 199.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 192.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 43c | 166.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 40c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 103.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 60c | 85.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 50.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…ad3cbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…35d2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%?this page
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%?No won
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%?No won
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.