Us Politics · resolved market
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5a116cbbc3f3e4be1dcdd6ae27902725e700d16cc337077935d4408cc1687c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 59c | 97,348$57,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,012.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 40c | 75,065$30,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,081.29 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 40c | 17,187$6,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,879.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 33c | 7,358$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.09 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 63c | 6,906$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 46c | 4,585$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.78 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…b339backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 41c | 2,110$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.22 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…740bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 38c | 1,248$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…b919backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 63c | 993.2$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.48 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 29c | 900$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 769.02$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 39c | 581.62$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.01 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed No | 63c | 543.6$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 39c | 537.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 71c | 387.37$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked No | 66c | 283.29$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 261$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…ae2cbacked No | 61c | 181$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 24c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 119.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 63c | 118.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…dfa6backed Yes | 38c | 116.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 54c | 113.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 54c | 86.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0795…59b7backed Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 40c | 39.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed Yes | 37c | 39.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 34.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked No | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 57c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%?this page
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%?No won
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%?Yes won
- Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.