Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe344ca86e82fbec04403d7a1ab89bc94ebcc3c4317bfeb67596005a1949ace7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e14…170cbacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7b5fbacked No | 1c | 2,482$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 56c | 1,686$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.45 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ee…87afbacked No | 1c | 1,569$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…0562backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…823cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fe6cbacked No | 45c | 995$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…dd07backed Yes | 55c | 880$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 48c | 655$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 71c | 565.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 453.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 40c | 272$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 22c | 211.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…b0e6backed No | 6c | 207.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 26c | 184.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed Yes | 58c | 180.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 63c | 158.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes | 67c | 134.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5b…8c08backed Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…e402backed No | 44c | 112.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 100.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 60c | 93.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 57c | 93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…0a81backed Yes | 61c | 78.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…e613backed No | 41c | 53.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 69c | 48.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 39c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…3b11backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Yes | 62c | 30.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf61…f048backed Yes | 64c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…061abacked Yes | 62c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 52c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…afe6backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 24% and 28% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be less than 24% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.