Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaf2b4abb3e232c7cdc75a86d0018db39a071f1be40e68bf0b3085637420c6f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 33c | 1,733$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.87 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…cc1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 38c | 776.71$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 35c | 673.49$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 33c | 465.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…1685backed Yes | 36c | 271.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…3b11backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 190.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +331.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 36c | 114.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 66c | 69.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 36c | 55.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 64c | 26.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 24% and 28% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be less than 24% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.