World Politics · resolved market
Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c76bb73be6ef103af471e7a5897b020720d6026c86e677735f869ffba0a779f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5019…74cdbacked Yes | 9c | 6,005$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 17c | 5,650$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 5,057$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.61 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 8c | 4,786$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.93 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 2,648$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,129$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…84afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,702$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,254$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,217$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…4fa7backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 600.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…dc8abacked Yes | 8c | 596.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 578.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37d…1221backed Yes | 12c | 398.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 19c | 282.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2985…0d51backed Yes | 8c | 280.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 17c | 270$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 260.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…ab1ebacked Yes | 7c | 257$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 248.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…b705backed Yes | 7c | 226.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 212.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 179.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 158$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?Yes won
- Will H win the second most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will MDG win the second most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.