World Politics · resolved market
Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e49ff4c72a7a708a63c470df73e08841a3e033bd66cd1ccbd056bb6eddb13ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 6c | 3,668$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 22c | 3,144$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 4c | 2,710$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 8c | 1,337$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 10c | 1,120$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 10c | 1,025$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 6c | 609.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 14c | 491.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 444.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 8c | 412.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 374.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 78c | 238.46$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 121.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 12c | 108.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 19c | 86.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 78c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…9807backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 79c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will H win the second most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will MDG win the second most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.