F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x038f8fd7c279885fbe08a379f126a3e6c65722335f7b71c147fa22284554a492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 63c | 5,702$3,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,616.75 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 60c | 5,273$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180.72 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,322$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 32c | 3,965$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.2 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,997$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.12 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 71c | 1,706$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.64 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 45c | 1,667$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 1,217$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.19 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.81 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 34c | 964.71$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 33c | 888.51$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.67 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…994dbacked Yes | 61c | 574.46$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 73c | 544.73$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 50c | 494.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.7 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 39c | 449.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 34c | 380.43$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 43c | 367.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 22c | 302.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 70c | 283.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 40c | 248.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 21c | 221.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +671.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9815…61f0backed Yes | 45c | 178.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 178$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 37c | 164$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 65c | 119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed No | 36c | 118.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…18e4backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 25c | 101.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 65c | 79.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 69c | 72.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…21dfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…d5dcbacked Yes | 27c | 41.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked Yes | 77c | 41.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…3332backed Yes | 59c | 37.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Yes | 33c | 37.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…446bbacked Yes | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 36c | 30.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x620a…fb08backed Yes | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 52c | 26.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.