MLB · resolved market
Will Jersey Jerry complete the Immaculate Inning Challenge?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc2b21c5a7a649e312597cc05a3f4338b9069405025cf42d57b323fa2d0319e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Yes | 17c | 12,055$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 17c | 3,791$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,697$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 52c | 1,575$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 78c | 1,228$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.28 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 13c | 725.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 19c | 711.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 62c | 554.25$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 10c | 494.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked No | 49c | 413.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed No | 69c | 360$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 44c | 347.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed No | 55c | 284.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…2719backed Yes | 60c | 248.06$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 9c | 241.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 51c | 210.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 11c | 170.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 28c | 160.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…7b6fbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 80c | 49.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…536ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…a888backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.