MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x453c1aff4892ca4b53c7488cf094095360c0a927e10a805fdf40dc7b88eb2345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 22,000$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,699.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 9,791$5,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,398.58 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 5,666$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.25 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 4,655$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.98 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 4,002$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.87 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 3,694$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.21 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 880$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 489.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 308$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 275$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Texas Rangers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 101.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 99.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.