TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$684,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c78,844$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.472920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de9…3c81backed Yes1c49,096$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c29,737$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.456291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes5c28,530$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.16716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9467…87dabacked Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes4c19,238$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c16,888$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.481,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes1c15,346$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.432416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x659d…a037backed Yes0c15,027$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.314613%6 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes2c13,835$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.05933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb165…a646backed Yes1c13,524$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c10,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5325…52bdbacked Yes4c9,371$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e2…10bfbacked Yes4c8,316$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed38…a90fbacked Yes1c8,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc915…fa12backed Yes1c7,132$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a51…55e0backed Yes1c7,090$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…6cf8backed Yes1c7,090$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c6,764$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84290%0 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c6,389$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.162560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…ebe1backed Yes1c6,194$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9b…eb17backed Yes1c5,529$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0882…1526backed Yes2c5,281$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7af2…0989backed Yes3c5,270$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1330…48d1backed Yes6c5,065$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f33…a95cbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes3c4,976$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.334619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c4,388$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.22110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Yes1c4,308$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes3c4,058$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.547330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…874ebacked Yes6c3,968$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6a…3cbebacked Yes1c3,857$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3de…d680backed Yes2c3,676$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf999…7983backed Yes4c3,629$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ba…648abacked Yes1c3,625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…1d16backed Yes6c3,550$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf285…52c2backed Yes6c3,400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb05b…9991backed Yes12c3,228$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53c4…9522backed Yes1c3,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.841323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes6c3,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.077611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2309…9b8ebacked Yes1c3,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bd…26bebacked Yes6c2,866$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x534a…1fb5backed Yes3c2,762$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171d…5976backed Yes1c2,453$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes4c2,453$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…d27bbacked Yes0c2,211$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e47…e4b3backed Yes8c2,098$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes2c1,947$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d2…d753backed Yes1c1,939$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes3c1,793$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes6c1,758$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.591566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes1c1,746$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c1,675$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x531c…d8a7backed Yes1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d46…954bbacked Yes1c1,659$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes1c1,556$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc39e…97d9backed Yes9c1,540$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes2c1,406$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-81.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes2c1,241$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+145.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9f…47c2backed Yes2c1,156$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Yes2c1,113$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed Yes3c1,051$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes5c1,021$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes2c1,020$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d7…945ebacked Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde6…11d7backed Yes1c999.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e60…b913backed Yes1c869.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes5c810.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8614339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes3c743.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cb…aaf0backed Yes6c714.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ea…6a6fbacked Yes7c712.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9367…cd16backed Yes3c638.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…8289backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-82%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes6c531$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.063231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c516.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6918323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6deb…24cabacked Yes5c510.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c3…ef66backed Yes2c508.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed Yes7c503$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.756336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x131d…1bb7backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba1…1a54backed Yes6c442.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37f…e967backed Yes3c441.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e2…7cddbacked Yes5c348.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed Yes6c322.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.262917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-76.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b1e…cfffbacked Yes3c318.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731c…cc1dbacked Yes6c317.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes5c310$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.236041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes8c271.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234812.5%6 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe825…8fc8backed Yes6c242.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0961…0973backed Yes10c192.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85e0…e601backed Yes10c134.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa67…439cbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.