AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefc861785141f19c7c71d09c2b4b0b379d5fd3ac5f3eb2d4cc3f8a0b025a748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $724,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $470,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $724,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 94,256$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 49,335$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.98 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 35,356$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb80…3d39backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 3c | 22,688$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…7c2fbacked Yes | 22c | 18,422$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 0c | 13,887$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…7427backed Yes | 0c | 13,579$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,081$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…0973backed Yes | 1c | 11,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…3533backed Yes | 1c | 9,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…fa4dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,727$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163b…4f54backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…1274backed Yes | 1c | 7,040$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…9522backed Yes | 1c | 6,953$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…a90fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,452$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 6,318$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…a0fcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,019$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…28e3backed Yes | 1c | 5,942$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…2929backed Yes | 1c | 5,879$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 1c | 4,957$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…292ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…3cbebacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,784$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…0cbbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,782$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…cb79backed Yes | 6c | 3,743$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 1c | 3,739$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,581$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,421$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7c6dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,374$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed Yes | 1c | 3,275$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,174$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 3,152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…e12dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed Yes | 3c | 3,027$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,935$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 6c | 2,677$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…ab53backed Yes | 2c | 2,582$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c012backed Yes | 1c | 2,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…3757backed Yes | 4c | 1,962$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…4d20backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,734$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,730$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,590$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…40e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,549$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,391$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,380$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,265$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…893cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,082$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…250ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,074$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…9df9backed Yes | 2c | 897.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 4c | 882.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…f1b6backed Yes | 5c | 738.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce18…dcddbacked Yes | 3c | 716.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…abdcbacked Yes | 5c | 677.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 4c | 615.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 546$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 5c | 417.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes | 5c | 397.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…8800backed Yes | 5c | 365.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…3c81backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…10febacked Yes | 7c | 294.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…8f30backed Yes | 7c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.