AI · resolved market
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f9b64b929dcd549d00930248191261bd8c5a7ac4fc9b5441ea241cb8c029509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,691,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,691,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 105,667$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa8…09b0backed Yes | 0c | 59,982$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…cf0ebacked Yes | 0c | 59,762$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…0756backed Yes | 0c | 59,284$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…c672backed Yes | 0c | 59,197$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…e366backed Yes | 0c | 59,075$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…e522backed Yes | 0c | 59,056$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…e886backed Yes | 0c | 59,042$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…e696backed Yes | 0c | 59,016$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…c382backed Yes | 0c | 58,993$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…0d6fbacked Yes | 0c | 58,984$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…eaa7backed Yes | 0c | 58,893$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…0134backed Yes | 0c | 58,762$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…b151backed Yes | 0c | 58,586$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…62b8backed Yes | 0c | 58,496$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…b07fbacked Yes | 0c | 58,443$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…f6dfbacked Yes | 0c | 58,261$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…17ecbacked Yes | 0c | 58,217$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6d75backed Yes | 0c | 58,049$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…6597backed Yes | 0c | 57,980$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…d6e4backed Yes | 0c | 57,968$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…f27ebacked Yes | 0c | 57,813$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…97c2backed Yes | 0c | 57,683$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…85bcbacked Yes | 0c | 57,677$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…63d1backed Yes | 0c | 57,667$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b2…3cd3backed Yes | 0c | 57,471$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…d17bbacked Yes | 0c | 57,454$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…9fb7backed Yes | 0c | 57,431$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a2…29d7backed Yes | 0c | 57,412$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…39b6backed Yes | 0c | 57,372$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…deb2backed Yes | 0c | 57,014$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0248…0fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 56,950$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…9c18backed Yes | 0c | 56,927$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…e2f3backed Yes | 0c | 56,926$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…93e9backed Yes | 0c | 56,865$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…7894backed Yes | 0c | 56,861$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…4f36backed Yes | 0c | 56,849$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…ff51backed Yes | 0c | 56,788$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…afd8backed Yes | 0c | 56,736$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…c086backed Yes | 0c | 56,466$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…2b82backed Yes | 0c | 55,961$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1910…1b57backed Yes | 0c | 55,692$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 34,441$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 28,449$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 21,454$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc2…9077backed Yes | 0c | 6,112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.