AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c49711d1339c9d54a6d2c9c781f2928ceda130c3c748afeca9d1e4367a226df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,053,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 86,932$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 1c | 36,530$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.9 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 1c | 36,521$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.1 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 34,998$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 4c | 17,464$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.39 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…0973backed Yes | 1c | 15,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 10,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…9522backed Yes | 0c | 8,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 3c | 7,400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 2c | 6,657$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,477$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,570$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 5,512$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 4,617$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,434$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,156$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,730$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb80…3d39backed Yes | 1c | 3,351$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes | 0c | 2,923$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…914ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,839$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…7ebebacked Yes | 0c | 2,839$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…7e38backed Yes | 0c | 2,760$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,650$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39e…97d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,571$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 2,547$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1333…d23bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,538$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,277$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 1,995$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…6d47backed Yes | 2c | 1,818$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,580$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…cdc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,193$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…1a55backed Yes | 4c | 1,116$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…87dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…11d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 999.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…776ebacked Yes | 3c | 973.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 3c | 966.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 6c | 857.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 7c | 804.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…0601backed Yes | 2c | 800.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 1c | 800.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 741$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 2c | 714.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 705.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…10febacked Yes | 1c | 694.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…b090backed Yes | 3c | 680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…718dbacked Yes | 2c | 624.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…5edbbacked Yes | 4c | 607.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…b059backed Yes | 2c | 594.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 2c | 582.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes | 9c | 567.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed Yes | 4c | 567$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…e981backed Yes | 8c | 544$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…8289backed Yes | 2c | 523.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -82%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…1770backed Yes | 2c | 511.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 4c | 472$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…5025backed Yes | 6c | 392.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 3c | 377.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…8cf4backed Yes | 4c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad0…a72fbacked Yes | 4c | 267.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313e…c4a3backed Yes | 6c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked Yes | 5c | 201.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.