MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa141d9f8a4445e4a11ae9bd27273c3fc9fe12fe4a14d59b94a1cdc85f0920548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 32,301$16,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,472.53 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed San Francisco Giants | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,399.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 16,573$8,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,458.49 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 14,901$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,599.51 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 6,478$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.31 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.99 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 3,820$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.87 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Francisco Giants | 48c | 2,796$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.66 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 2,552$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 2,325$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.63 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 2,039$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.78 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 1,604$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.61 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…c49fbacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 1,283$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.13 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 1,084$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.76 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 726.4$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.73 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 478$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…5686backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…3b13backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 430.61$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 297.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…4e88backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 269.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…80febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 237.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 138$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 129.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 122.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 71.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 42.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.