Us Politics · resolved market
Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47d3faef5d900459be4b8c41427fa0d541cc91f3a6000c0932790fac14bec8f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e26…32a8backed No | 55c | 26,251$14,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,812.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…3734backed Yes | 45c | 26,251$11,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,812.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,924$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 18c | 2,873$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 2,631$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,500$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…3ca6backed Yes | 6c | 1,273$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…3696backed Yes | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 7c | 900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…78c5backed Yes | 9c | 823.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 772.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 757.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 6c | 607.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 8c | 580$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 9c | 540$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…2b2cbacked Yes | 7c | 477.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 7c | 445.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Yes | 6c | 439.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…0fa3backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 12cpaid | +332.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 8c | 383.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03d…ec9abacked Yes | 9c | 275.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 273.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 9c | 256.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 236.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 231.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 9c | 213.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…2ed2backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…9eefbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…389bbacked Yes | 16c | 184.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 161.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…59e7backed Yes | 9c | 149.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…6ab4backed Yes | 9c | 108.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 66c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…89e2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.