TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Texans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Raiders, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,605,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,564,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,605,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Raiders10c273,338$28,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,167.1117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Raiders11c263,908$29,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,029.8619553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raiders11c185,000$19,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,849.9914342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Raiders11c137,863$15,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,164.9510026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Raiders10c124,327$12,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,675.9416836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Raiders11c90,470$9,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9262638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Raiders9c74,067$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6661936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raiders10c69,397$7,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,283.4547348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Raiders10c48,045$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,804.55431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raiders11c44,352$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,878.6711145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raiders22c40,951$8,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,968.537255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Raiders10c33,846$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.4153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raiders14c25,372$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,506.3411643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders13c21,712$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.1630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raiders10c20,735$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14823244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Raiders9c20,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raiders10c19,411$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.1475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12a…96bbbacked Raiders13c15,677$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Raiders10c15,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Raiders0c14,876$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.79980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Raiders10c13,416$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.612744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raiders11c13,398$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.0754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Texans70c12,597$8,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.5620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Raiders6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Raiders9c9,999$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.352330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Raiders8c8,343$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.479245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raiders6c8,261$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.6668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Raiders2c8,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16033328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Raiders9c8,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.984544.4%20 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Raiders11c7,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7704944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raiders18c6,571$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.0919235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raiders9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54039447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Raiders10c5,276$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.652161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raiders10c5,069$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.9432050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Raiders10c4,947$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7310333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Raiders10c4,920$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4926550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Raiders10c4,481$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.5531450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Raiders10c3,684$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.352544%11 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Raiders11c3,636$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texans73c3,532$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.2850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Raiders10c3,451$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.248737.9%33 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders10c3,413$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.091,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Raiders12c3,343$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f51…78c6backed Raiders11c3,237$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c5…fb07backed Raiders11c3,105$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Raiders10c2,918$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9614532.4%47 W · 98 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Raiders2c2,837$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Raiders13c2,770$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.0912138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8f…3f00backed Raiders11c2,642$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Raiders2c2,555$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Raiders10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf00b…71d2backed Raiders11c2,462$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Raiders23c2,218$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Raiders14c2,203$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0331056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Raiders9c2,179$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2734652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5aa…5bd7backed Raiders26c2,085$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.464153.7%22 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Raiders11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Raiders1c2,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Raiders18c2,000$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Raiders10c1,905$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.481637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raiders24c1,901$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7427348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd3…c066backed Raiders11c1,880$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.94736.2%17 W · 30 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Raiders9c1,694$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.524054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Raiders24c1,631$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.141833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Raiders10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Raiders10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1924…90bbbacked Raiders11c1,449$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Raiders6c1,446$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7611122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Raiders28c1,445$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe453…b03cbacked Raiders11c1,421$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Texans67c1,406$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.659853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Raiders10c1,400$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33df…9a83backed Raiders11c1,301$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Raiders19c1,272$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4319543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Raiders10c1,211$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.113449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raiders11c1,200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12727633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raiders14c1,175$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3135648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Raiders9c1,151$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7531543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89e…0331backed Raiders11c1,115$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.651163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+81.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Raiders11c1,087$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Raiders10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005044%22 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Raiders11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Raiders13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1307558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Raiders1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Raiders11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11022446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed Raiders1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Raiders23c993.7$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8711237.5%42 W · 70 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5936…e1c3backed Raiders11c973$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Raiders11c966.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1848847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texans78c928.4$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Raiders13c923.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed Raiders11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011637.9%44 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eab…b026backed Raiders11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Raiders11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009135.2%32 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…15c4backed Raiders11c887$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b9…5455backed Raiders18c858.83$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523243.8%14 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+79.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raiders11c800$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.554647.8%22 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans76c756.41$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4118650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f5…a1d8backed Raiders12c743.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.555442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Texans79c700$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.