NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4776e0321619a83198f90eb432f2a1be973c1bd0b0d58a30ebc7619f0ab7773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Texans, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 44c | 29,867$13,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,807.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Texans | 57c | 14,000$7,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Texans | 56c | 3,845$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Texans | 56c | 3,600$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Texans | 56c | 2,567$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Texans | 56c | 2,120$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.2 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Texans | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raiders | 43c | 1,051$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Texans | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Texans | 56c | 480.29$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.96 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Texans | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Texans | 56c | 428.57$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Texans | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Texans | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 43c | 208.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Texans | 56c | 204.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Texans | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Texans | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Raiders | 45c | 154.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…e59abacked Texans | 56c | 117$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…e563backed Texans | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Texans | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Texans | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raiders | 44c | 71.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raiders | 44c | 71.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Texans | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Texans | 58c | 60.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Texans | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Texans | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Raiders | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raiders | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Texans | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…c341backed Texans | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Texans | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 74.3%75 W · 26 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Texans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Texans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-7.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. TexansTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Texans (-14.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.