NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1846d74e591a9a3a3001652b37e33425ef5ff241ba4ae98fe01c89b7bdd18b3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 43,360$21,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,246.38 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 51c | 43,165$21,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,183.35 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 1,505$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.5 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 51c | 1,141$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.13 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 496.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 398.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.67 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 52c | 384.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 284.68$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 108.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…270dbacked Under | 52c | 108.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…295dbacked Over | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…7976backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-7.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. TexansTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Texans (-12.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Texans (-14.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.