NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9d4b69ca89db374d1ae886895138038eb2e043ad2d2abe5c6ba4d65e605b3b6

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $113,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,407 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under	43c	28,277$12,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,198.38	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	57c	19,560$11,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,411.02	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Over	59c	17,042$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,041.99	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+9.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Over	54c	14,707$7,942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,765	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	46c	14,470$6,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,656.33	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	41c	6,646$2,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,694.83	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f6…cf62backed Over	53c	5,282$2,799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,482.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	42c	4,143$1,739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,739.28	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Over	57c	3,000$1,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,290	62	50%31 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,410	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Under	46c	2,820$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,297	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Under	44c	1,770$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.8	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over	56c	1,500$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660	224	46.4%104 W · 120 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Over	59c	1,039$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.09	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under	46c	1,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Over	55c	822.3$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.03	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Under	47c	700$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Over	56c	700$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	46c	698$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.82	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under	41c	500$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-11.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	42c	499.99$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.5	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Over	58c	431.81$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.81	193	61.7%119 W · 74 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	47c	425.53$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over	56c	396.1$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.1	137	52.6%72 W · 65 L	+10.9wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	45c	366$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.36	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Over	54c	357.41$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.41	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Over	58c	309.49$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.49	162	43.8%71 W · 91 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	34c	300.02$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0203…270dbacked Under	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	54c	217.42$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.49	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc609…7b6fbacked Under	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Under	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	139	35.3%49 W · 90 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	57c	167.39$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.98	163	60.1%98 W · 65 L	+16.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	45c	152.55$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.28	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	44c	136.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.03	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…87d8backed Over	54c	129$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.34	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49a0…29acbacked Under	43c	116.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Under	43c	111.11$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.78	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	71	64.8%46 W · 25 L	+10.7wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa535…dffcbacked Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	128	43%55 W · 73 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	169	46.7%79 W · 90 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Over	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x280a…df86backed Under	47c	67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.49	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	44c	66$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x786c…4a00backed Under	47c	62$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	154	53.9%83 W · 71 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+12.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	46c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	115	52.2%60 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	112	53.6%60 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	108	61.1%66 W · 42 L	+11.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d31…295dbacked Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Under	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	+20.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	41c	47.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	58c	45.18$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.98	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Over	58c	43.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	-10.7wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7c3…3800backed Under	49c	41.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Over	75c	37$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	41cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	54c	36.76$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	105	55.2%58 W · 47 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7148…8fbfbacked Over	75c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	139	59%82 W · 57 L	+12.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Over	54c	29.41$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.53	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Over	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea6…1064backed Under	47c	28.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e1…8dd6backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ed…2d62backed Over	54c	26.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Under	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	94	56.4%53 W · 41 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	71c	24.17$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.01	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Over	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Under	46c	21.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.5wins	-0.32per pick	41cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x60a8…9bd6backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.30per pick	56cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Over	58c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…b8ddbacked Over	54c	18.61$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.56	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	57cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5this page
1H Spread: Texans (-7.5)Raiders won
Raiders vs. TexansTexans won
Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
Spread: Texans (-11.5)Raiders won
Spread: Texans (-12.5)Raiders won
Spread: Texans (-14.5)Raiders won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event