NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd01a14b96e09eec6e4dd467762026f98ad38742e1f618c7a007ed98e4ecff2b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Texans, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 42c | 1,506$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Texans | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Raiders | 42c | 612.17$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.06 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…195bbacked Texans | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Texans | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Texans | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Texans | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Texans | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texans | 48c | 58.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Texans | 58c | 55.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Texans | 64c | 51.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Texans | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Texans | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…05fcbacked Raiders | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Texans | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Texans | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Texans | 52c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Raiders | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-7.5)Raiders won
- Raiders vs. TexansTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-12.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Texans (-14.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.