Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Brutalist' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe514a83693f028461e240ee49667a5defadf162f56c60e658384d14de27eb562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 2c | 683.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 341.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 327.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 7c | 327.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 5c | 253.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 5c | 211.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…2107backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 78c | 73.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 14c | 71.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…8045backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 53c | 46.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…04dcbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…479dbacked Yes | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…81d6backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e7b6backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…2ebabacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win 6+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.