MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57eb179fb688437752f97aef760de43fce9fa3a960235031486d3335feea8778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 12,048$5,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,627.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 10,289$5,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,658.89 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 2,693$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,507$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.85 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 1,408$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.37 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 1,288$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.14 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 1,244$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.53 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,055$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.21 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 985.01$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 589.44$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 328.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 280$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 164.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 53.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.