MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d46050f74b4e78a89046015a50b6f0de6b636c2ad0f48a8d941a45cd5bd6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago Cubs | 15c | 45,586$6,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,716 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 21,733$13,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,599.57 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 20,236$12,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,016.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 16,216$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,185.35 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 11,047$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,865.39 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 8,644$3,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,504.32 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 7,062$4,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.81 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 6,519$3,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.63 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…6099backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 4,796$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 4,463$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.76 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…651abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 2,766$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.69 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 2,648$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 2,376$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.26 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,823$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.45 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 1,770$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.1 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,370$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.24 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,135$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.87 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 816.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.53 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…c49fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 715.25$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 701$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 373.37$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 370$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Chicago Cubs | 14c | 334$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…72a3backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 258.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked San Diego Padres | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 191.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 187.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 155.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 146.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +13.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 74.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 43.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 35.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 30.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.