MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2645bcf046ed3dce266842109ffdbd4187b64772109f546ed672f451eed7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 3,800$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 1,328$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.14 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 855.27$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 433.27$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 432$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 276.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 145.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 107.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 50.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…eee9backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 39.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.