World Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffea59c51b27dd000038fb9e8f659bfb3ea3cb8a4283a9e774bdef9844a27141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,230,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $732,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,230,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 84,969$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 54,999$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…f4f4backed Yes | 1c | 50,900$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…8073backed Yes | 0c | 45,200$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 41,011$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 40,331$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…acbebacked Yes | 1c | 38,800$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…b1a3backed Yes | 1c | 37,916$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…a928backed Yes | 0c | 24,880$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…47d8backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,559$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 11,169$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…b139backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…374fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…4f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,976$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…c5b9backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 1,894$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,805$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes won
- Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.