World Politics · resolved market
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc778f4e1f001b17cd86762ae466eecf2299bc3d12271a2bf825a9bd9b7dd68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,365,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,192,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,365,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 403,276$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.66 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 169,216$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.36 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 131,183$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.17 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…839bbacked Yes | 0c | 122,910$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 115,357$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.89 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed Yes | 0c | 107,902$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 89,062$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.89 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 0c | 63,593$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 0c | 57,260$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.28 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 49,673$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 0c | 43,539$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 0c | 31,160$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 28,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 22,385$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 1c | 22,369$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 21,964$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.16 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 1c | 21,166$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Yes | 0c | 19,775$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,345$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 13,665$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 12,648$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 11,899$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 0c | 11,771$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00e…bfd6backed Yes | 0c | 9,537$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 1c | 9,257$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…4f21backed Yes | 0c | 8,851$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 0c | 8,464$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…44a0backed Yes | 0c | 8,399$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,343$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…21b0backed Yes | 0c | 8,320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…d106backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…0694backed Yes | 0c | 5,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 1c | 4,764$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 1c | 4,039$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +450.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed Yes | 2c | 3,064$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 2,989$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,764$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 2,749$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,646$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,523$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes won
- Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
- Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.