TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,261,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$778,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,261,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c94,459$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4684.4%3 W · 65 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+417.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0211…8073backed Yes0c70,300$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53b…9c48backed Yes0c66,109$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c51,424$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.853614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c49,999$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes0c47,782$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.78160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c40,320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.094121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…9402backed Yes1c28,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c18,421$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.274521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c12,475$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.951100%0 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0793…dac7backed Yes0c11,810$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes0c9,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd7f…2145backed Yes1c6,568$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3421…31e3backed Yes1c6,568$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef5…c692backed Yes1c6,568$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe4…6faebacked Yes1c6,568$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809d…81adbacked Yes1c6,568$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c80…0ed8backed Yes0c6,130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…cb64backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c0…457fbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff2…442fbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1b…3146backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca0…fef0backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f0…c1aabacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbd…f436backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad59…4404backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd0…3ac2backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891c…93fbbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fb…f656backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53f…badcbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd54…ef3bbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31af…139fbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1d…097ebacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ed…6a66backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18a…781bbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba99…33f3backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x483c…91ccbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7638…86d5backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1e…2decbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf3…dc89backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…7b05backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d8…e61cbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…ca44backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bd…4409backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe698…eb0abacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…7359backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a87…d96abacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692a…1452backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e5…d260backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…5e03backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…c3f8backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b80…521abacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219c…a03abacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd35b…a570backed Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea09…9d4bbacked Yes1c4,926$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d27…a843backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf400…1a2bbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea3…e2b0backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e46…77b7backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x601f…6dbebacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816d…1f3ebacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e73…197cbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac0…6432backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59b…81e9backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd2…8affbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…64ffbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c1…36a8backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad6…ac3dbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e05…0d9cbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5538…973ebacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ab…9e0bbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…ecb1backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff6c…5c4cbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c3…e594backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e7…8312backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6e…de08backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb229…601ebacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…3ababacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…f9acbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c6…8932backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47cc…5e47backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…a8c0backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb5…d541backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b4…0f8ebacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190e…c743backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f7…08b3backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…bd1dbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee3…6837backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd05…b572backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…7dd9backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc419…89f2backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…8942backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ed…9f66backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecea…185fbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80db…d82bbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8e…38bdbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2507…e5fbbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6029…1ad4backed Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b32…84ebbacked Yes1c3,284$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.