Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa864e4afdb255b89e1a0014295bf98be742674b9558cb74b14392392cacfd951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb177…fd93backed Yes | 24c | 10,132$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…4680backed Yes | 24c | 10,040$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…2465backed No | 76c | 10,034$7,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…178fbacked No | 76c | 10,012$7,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,402.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 2,006$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.59 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 1,913$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.51 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 75c | 974.72$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.68 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes | 26c | 776.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 599.98$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 64c | 557.87$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 25c | 458.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8949backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed No | 70c | 210$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…e3efbacked Yes | 36c | 139.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 74c | 139.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…c6f0backed Yes | 36c | 107.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…cf5cbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 73c | 94.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked No | 76c | 48.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…632fbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 69c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 65c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…0990backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 64c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?this page
- Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-22?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.