Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47a3848ec1f631dca8173ea8f857ad1e991c02a5912a72ac6013449043e613f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 577.09$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 428.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 420.8$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 42c | 385.61$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 382.34$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 356.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 71c | 304.87$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 257.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 254.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 33c | 241.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 236.4$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 80c | 203.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 28c | 200.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 199.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 54c | 185.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 34c | 185$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 52c | 183.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 29c | 178.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 177$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 28c | 169.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 62c | 160.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 157.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 17c | 156.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 24c | 151.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 146.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 145.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 47c | 140.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 135.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 69c | 132.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 119.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 111.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 108.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…f0d5backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 97.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 96.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 92.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 91.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 66c | 91.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 85.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 28c | 83.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 30c | 80.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 77.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 36c | 77.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 26c | 75.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 74.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 38c | 70.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 70.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 69.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 68.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 48c | 66.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 65.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 65.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 62.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…eeaabacked Yes | 34c | 61.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…0673backed Yes | 47c | 61.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 58.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 56.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 65c | 53.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…86f9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 78c | 48.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 46.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 70c | 45.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 44c | 45.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 30c | 44.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 30c | 44.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 43.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 43.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 31c | 42.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 42.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 46c | 40.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…aef1backed No | 69c | 39.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.