Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33aebd4a470e87a29b7397f243bd7b63fcede9ae0757e20a1ab58c986d358b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 14c | 994.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 882.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 9c | 400.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 386.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 12c | 292$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 16c | 290.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 13c | 268.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 234$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 25c | 218.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 24c | 209.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 198.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 18c | 169.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 158.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 152.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 11c | 145.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 9c | 127.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 11c | 125.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 25c | 122.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 18c | 110.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…7976backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked No | 79c | 101.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 91.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 14c | 86.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 23c | 78.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 76.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 65.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 55.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 75c | 45.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.