Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c405610d9d32e5def88bd9923ecdefae9e631aea85069aedab692ef11c3e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 729.15$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 16c | 536.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 46c | 501.22$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 493.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 476.19$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 28c | 399.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 48c | 397.43$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.21 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 38c | 382.87$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 362.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 361.25$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 357.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 46c | 348$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 11c | 322.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 309$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 70c | 270.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 255.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 243.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 240$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 218.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 62c | 211.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 16c | 207.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 49c | 204.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 37c | 172.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 170.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 28c | 159.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 157.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 46c | 155.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 146.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 135.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 55c | 128.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 128.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 123.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 19c | 119.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 47c | 116.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 112.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 52c | 111.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 42c | 110.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 48c | 104.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 56c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 72c | 100.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 46c | 99.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 71c | 97.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 54c | 92.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 90.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 49c | 90.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 19c | 89.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 86.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 17c | 82.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 48c | 79.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa243…2bb4backed Yes | 35c | 78.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 76.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 35c | 75.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 73.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 80c | 70.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 69.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 51c | 68.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 67.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 66.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 38c | 66.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 32c | 66.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 62.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 45c | 61.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 48c | 59.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 43c | 57.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 57.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 57.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…4552backed Yes | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 53.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 52.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 51c | 51.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 32c | 48.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 47.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…4f62backed Yes | 43c | 47.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…0370backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 46.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 49c | 44.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 25c | 43.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 43.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 42.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 47c | 41.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 41.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 40.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.