Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24d2036f6ea6a1a9871790656833ac1b22dfcdc1e4ec9327bdb10b98f8555f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 78c | 759.67$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 15c | 477.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 16c | 351.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 316.96$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 18c | 308.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 263.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 249.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 215.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 183.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 8c | 157.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 14c | 152.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 11c | 152.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 14c | 143.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 141.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 117.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 21c | 102.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 92.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 18c | 88.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 15c | 79.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 27c | 72.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 29.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.