Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c6c01245dc4b07c5e1094279612b2b662d34fb04db28bd17d87f7b42db655f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 47c | 764.31$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 55c | 704.89$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.05 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 571.79$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.58 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 46c | 542.88$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 494.91$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 9c | 438.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 51c | 435.57$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.52 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 77c | 391.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 38c | 277.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 4c | 266.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 237.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 40c | 236.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 46c | 216.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 53c | 213.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 67c | 184$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 42c | 179.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 177.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 165.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 50c | 163.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 162.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed No | 8c | 156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked No | 65c | 155.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 155.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 19c | 150.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…da0abacked No | 50c | 145.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 59c | 143.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 136.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 43c | 135.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 42c | 135.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 131.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 130.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 59c | 120.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 40c | 115.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 113.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 74c | 113.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 112.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 109.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 108.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 105.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 97.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 41c | 95.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 54c | 94.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 89.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 32c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 79.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 51c | 77.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 76.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 76.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 74.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 57c | 73.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 21c | 72.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 54c | 72.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 70.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 45c | 67.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 63.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 44c | 58.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 50c | 58.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 27c | 54.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 53.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 53c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 29c | 47.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 46.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed Yes | 53c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 45.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…70c0backed No | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 65c | 45.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 22c | 45.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 43.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…ab84backed Yes | 56c | 42.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 35c | 40.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 45c | 39.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 53c | 39.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 47c | 39.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 39.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.