Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30fdc06f7e978233cf9635c35d216ac22bd4a62727a3de8e611db92468a0adc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 78c | 806.34$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 30c | 683.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 600.08$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 560.54$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 35c | 534.41$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 29c | 513.12$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 32c | 500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 383.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 63c | 319.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 303.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 265.38$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed No | 71c | 262.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 67c | 243.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 241.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 66c | 237.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 72c | 225.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 204.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 71c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 168.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 148.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 141.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 27c | 137$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 22c | 133.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 129.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 63c | 129.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 62c | 129.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 62c | 127.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 44c | 123.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 33c | 119.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 35c | 119.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 117.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 117$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 25c | 116.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 114.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 33c | 111.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 39c | 106.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 68c | 104.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 44c | 100.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 100.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 35c | 98.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 95.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 92.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 91.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 88.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 28c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 39c | 63.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 59.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 59.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 52.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 47.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 50c | 47.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…8788backed No | 55c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 44.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 42.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 42.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 66c | 41.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…a235backed Yes | 28c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 54c | 40.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 43c | 40.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…ae6abacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 36.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 60c | 36.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 49c | 35.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed No | 69c | 34.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 39c | 33.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 32.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 31.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 72c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 65c | 27.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.