Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583496265f629cdfb59522a0d209ecbe4c8b9d3573b31cdc2c0a7651697be79b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e37…a7d5backed No | 43c | 1,110$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 1,071$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 51c | 727.01$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.94 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 37c | 680.36$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 2c | 636.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 43c | 538.64$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.26 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 519.13$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.01 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 45c | 511.64$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 46c | 507.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 58c | 495.12$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 44c | 492.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 446.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 416.27$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 408.68$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 56c | 407.49$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 326$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.16 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 316.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 51c | 234.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 217.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 205.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 192.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 186.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 64c | 186.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 39c | 185.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 179.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 176.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 40c | 176$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 172.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 32c | 171.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 51c | 166.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 11c | 157.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 69c | 144.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 120.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 70c | 118.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 116.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 115.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 113.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 113.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 68c | 111.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 42c | 111$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 106.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 40c | 105.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 97.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 51c | 95.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 33c | 93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 26c | 88.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 67c | 87.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 87.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 86.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…52c2backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 59c | 86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 60c | 80.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 77.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 66c | 75.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 74.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 43c | 72.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 56c | 69.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 47c | 66.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 65.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 65.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 64.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 58.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 58.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 57.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 44c | 57.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 27c | 55.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 54.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 54.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…40a7backed No | 55c | 52.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…2a38backed No | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 57c | 45.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 58c | 43.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3438…67cdbacked Yes | 30c | 42.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 42c | 42.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 42c | 40.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 75c | 39.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.