Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279a521d35c727d9dd8ec8b0ddf2404e93b8f56cecb6a555f5d84ca5cf8a9956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 26c | 743.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 12c | 700$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 10c | 599.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 515.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 421.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 21c | 405.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 402$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 220.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…5ca2backed Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 191.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 19c | 167.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 160.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 13c | 141.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 127.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 119.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 76c | 115.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 106.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 29c | 104.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 94.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 19c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 26c | 77.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 74c | 73.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 72.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 16c | 71.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 22c | 70.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 67.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 66.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 63.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 56.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 45.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 43.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 28c | 36.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.