Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5aa5da9eea972681c611abd958a9e25c980fc3d95f475700728536c28998ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,282$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 6c | 1,040$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 67c | 849.57$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 724.51$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 630.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 67c | 599.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.97 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 17c | 546.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 452.23$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.87 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 423.87$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 355.57$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 18c | 243.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 76c | 214.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 192.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 191.08$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 15c | 158.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 17c | 150.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 71c | 105.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 16c | 101.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 98.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 18c | 95.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 14c | 82.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 21c | 81.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 80.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…f7e6backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 78.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 75.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 75.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 22c | 74.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 72.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742a…fa07backed Yes | 22c | 71.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 21c | 67.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 65.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 48c | 64.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 64.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 19c | 63.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 63.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 60.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 47c | 50.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +209.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…ae6abacked No | 79c | 49.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 28c | 39.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 30c | 34.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 34.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 41c | 30.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 59c | 29.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 53c | 22.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 22.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 54c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 54c | 19.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 68c | 17.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…8788backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.