Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b02124382c2007ca9fd8543a4b22b4410fe799f5600cefd574574fa72baed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 822.17$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.32 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 47c | 790.02$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.96 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 564.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 54c | 551.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 47c | 548.68$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.91 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 515.29$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 457.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 44c | 447.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 404.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 50c | 392.38$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…02b6backed No | 51c | 343.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 57c | 315.83$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 308.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 282.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 34c | 274.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 75c | 251.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 37c | 244.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 232.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 43c | 201.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 51c | 195.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 183.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 176.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 49c | 171.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 164.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 159.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 157.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 153$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 66c | 149.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 146.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 127.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…c69dbacked Yes | 53c | 124.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 123.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 117.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 36c | 117.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 114.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 46c | 108.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 106.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 33c | 96.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 54c | 92.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 89.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 58c | 88.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 45c | 86.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 83.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 79.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 47c | 76.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 75.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0a13backed Yes | 55c | 73.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x301a…d003backed Yes | 54c | 70.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 56c | 69.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 45c | 67.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 66.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 63.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 62.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 55c | 61.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 59.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 66c | 56.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 53.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 52.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 48c | 52.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 57c | 52.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 51c | 51.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 68c | 51.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 50.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 41c | 49.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1f…5578backed No | 52c | 48.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 47.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 56c | 46.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 48c | 38.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…4022backed Yes | 51c | 36.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.