Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34705ca1c8f5dd844f7c9255491e5eef62adce626bec470643a174a8a8df3e12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 1c | 799.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.98 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 746.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.95 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 18c | 626.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 26c | 623.52$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 2c | 533.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.29 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 520.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 504.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.98 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 466.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 61c | 439.68$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 432.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 28c | 432.44$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 75c | 411.19$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 390.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 365.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 17c | 364.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 11c | 312.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.84 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 25c | 312.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.12 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 53c | 290.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 63c | 250.92$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 233.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 209.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 5c | 208.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 11c | 206.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 32c | 201.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.37 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 198.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 49c | 186.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 177.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 167.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 15c | 158.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 79c | 149.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 72c | 143.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 21c | 138.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 137.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 136.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 123.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 32c | 121.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 33c | 118.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 55c | 103.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 67c | 102.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 55c | 101.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 97.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 94.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 80c | 85.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 84.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 16c | 83.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 76.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 40c | 75.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2689…50cabacked No | 68c | 72.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 22c | 70.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 67.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 62.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 80c | 62.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 53c | 62.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 61.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 60.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 42c | 59.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked No | 76c | 59.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 51c | 55.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 51.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 45c | 48.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 34c | 47.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 47.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 45.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 47c | 43.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 41.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 38.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 72c | 36.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 32c | 36.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 67c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 34.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 75c | 33.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 57c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…38a7backed No | 55c | 33.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…a2d1backed No | 54c | 32.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 63c | 30.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 58c | 28.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 23.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…91d2backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…3b61backed Yes | 58c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 79c | 19.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 60c | 18.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…bc4fbacked Yes | 76c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…9f2abacked No | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.