Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4abd685020810de9e18eb1de4b73434537576db62a23bfa1acd615387ad46127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 27c | 1,103$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.85 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 995.85$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 966.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 4c | 948.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 888.64$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 4c | 876.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 21c | 753.13$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.77 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 670$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 659.63$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.27 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 479.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 476.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 29c | 410.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 405.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 400.44$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 388.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 36c | 375.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 26c | 375.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 20c | 356.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 331.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 327.08$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 9c | 313.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 290.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 72c | 288$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 28c | 284.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 31c | 282.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 274.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 28c | 237.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 55c | 236.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 229.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…c69dbacked Yes | 34c | 218.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 17c | 202.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 185.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 174.35$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 13c | 150.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 143.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 75c | 140.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 139$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 136.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 134.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 17c | 130.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 129.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 124.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 124.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 42c | 116.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 115.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 72c | 113.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 111.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 16c | 111.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 28c | 110.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 105.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 105.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 103.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 50c | 103.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 102.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 65c | 100.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 67c | 94.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 60c | 93.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 92.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 89.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 88.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 29c | 80.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x301a…d003backed Yes | 27c | 72.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…91d2backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 70.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…9a16backed No | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 65.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 28c | 65.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 64.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 60.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…0673backed Yes | 31c | 60.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 59.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 20c | 57.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 55.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 23c | 55.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 54.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 53.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 74c | 51.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc183…e76ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 33c | 48.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.