Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9f6acf4e42f0aa4cf92a710aec98ebace71f60a70c939f2ff04a8e222e6d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 680.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 582.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 559.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 545.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 24c | 396.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 23c | 387.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 74c | 272.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 236$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 20c | 234$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 27c | 215.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 185.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 156.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…7a32backed Yes | 10c | 156.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 153$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed No | 76c | 144.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 135.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 128.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 25c | 119.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 19c | 115.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 18c | 111.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 16c | 110.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 103.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 99.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 22c | 96.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 84.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 83.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 25c | 83.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 26c | 81.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 77c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 21c | 71.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 27c | 68.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 67.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 17c | 61.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 60.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 25c | 43.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 40.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…91d2backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.