Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6cff2e87357c2934d8e9f914d14f7912791bdd016a45d4da65269e1d18416d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 1,014$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.95 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 842.57$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.24 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 756.96$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 75c | 496.52$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 402.34$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 373.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 372.18$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 61c | 366$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 59c | 353.64$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 345.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.68 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 345.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 32c | 293.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 292.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 59c | 271.23$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 242.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 234.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 52c | 206.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 204.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 195$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 178.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 170.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 167.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 68c | 163.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 159.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 53c | 156$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 145.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 46c | 136.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 136$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 134.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 126.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 120.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 56c | 107.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 106.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…dcfcbacked Yes | 80c | 106.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 101.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…5452backed No | 54c | 101$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 101$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 54c | 92.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 53c | 92.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 48c | 90.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 57c | 88.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 87.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 86.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 85.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 79.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 79.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 77.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 74.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 45c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 16c | 68.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 68.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 63c | 67.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 64.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 47c | 59.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 51c | 56.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 55.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 54.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 34c | 51.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 50c | 48.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 48.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed Yes | 41c | 47.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 53c | 47.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 45c | 46.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 44.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 44.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 52c | 44.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 51c | 40.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 39.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 39.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 36.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 30.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 30.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…013bbacked Yes | 52c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.