Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04057cdd473a3e1a9f647794eb4d87ec08a5891f72036ce0b2671ca3e6f6ff59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 7c | 2,029$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 13c | 1,797$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 32c | 1,257$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,235$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 407.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 15c | 340.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 10c | 287.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 270.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 235.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 13c | 214.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 214.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 10c | 208.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 199.35$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 193$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 183.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 175.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 172.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 129.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 13c | 112.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 13c | 111.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 102.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 80c | 101.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 99.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 16c | 99.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 28.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.