Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd6ecf83a886080f3a4849c9efb970d0b2700ad9a1bbe938fb9b7245d8b8219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27bd…5452backed Yes | 1c | 10,216$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 43c | 1,222$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.63 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 1,197$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 1,080$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 74c | 929.96$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.29 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 17c | 870.57$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 32c | 789.47$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.31 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 24c | 700$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 62c | 610.14$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.92 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 579.54$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 37c | 498.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 21c | 467.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 443$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 36c | 414.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 77c | 388.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 372.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 344$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 29c | 329$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 322.36$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 320.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 291$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 268.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 36c | 249.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 236.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 233.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 221.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 215.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 212.49$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed No | 67c | 209.41$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 204.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 58c | 189.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 181$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 178$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 32c | 174.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 35c | 174.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 58c | 172.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 22c | 167.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 167.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 164.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 155.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 147.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 26c | 141.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 24c | 141.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 62c | 141$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 22c | 140.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 33c | 139.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 138.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 136.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 135.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 132.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 36c | 132.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 131.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 30c | 130.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 125.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 103.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 100.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 90.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 38c | 86.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 82.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…35afbacked Yes | 28c | 81.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 80.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 79.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 28c | 78.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 76.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 31c | 75.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 72.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 72.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 72.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 39c | 70.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 69.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 69.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…06e3backed Yes | 44c | 68.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 65.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 46c | 64.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked Yes | 34c | 60.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 57.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 22c | 55.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd7…d588backed Yes | 37c | 55.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.