Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfedcb17b2628dcd1afeb2896f3613f21cb2ffb4ee7727423ed943f97a221063d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 64c | 795.67$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.14 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 52c | 791.54$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 658.79$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 65c | 618.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 56c | 517.12$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.73 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 511.85$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 422.03$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 413.07$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 391.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed Yes | 34c | 374.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 367.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 13c | 357.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 47c | 356.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 66c | 344.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 331.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 45c | 316.97$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 43c | 316$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 55c | 315.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 56c | 265.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 55c | 232.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 44c | 226.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 213$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 48c | 207.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 49c | 198.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 37c | 188.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 67c | 187.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 54c | 186.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 176.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 170.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 51c | 165.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 164.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 164.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 162$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 66c | 159.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 152.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 149.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…5452backed No | 69c | 145.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 145.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 140.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698e…2b12backed No | 57c | 137.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 131.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 131.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 127.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 122.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 121.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 118.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 117.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 36c | 114.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 112.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 111.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 46c | 107.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 47c | 107.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 101.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 36c | 101.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 13c | 100.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 51c | 94.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 50c | 93.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 91.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 86.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 85.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 84.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 33c | 83.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 47c | 79.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 49c | 79.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 18c | 79.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 46c | 79.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 75.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…c310backed Yes | 54c | 73.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed No | 47c | 66.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Yes | 51c | 63.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 62.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 49c | 62.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 58.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 56c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 61c | 56.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 56.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 63c | 54.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…06e3backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 52.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…4f7abacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 49.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 33c | 48.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 56c | 46.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 44.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.