Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be0a06cbd5c3efb45ce67f15358ef17f5760cc8b0a76f6a630c30e3df267fc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,374$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.87 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 2c | 1,533$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 545.63$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 47c | 540.17$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 42c | 500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 63c | 477.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 455.01$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 38c | 430.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 48c | 426.45$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 419.6$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 413.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 21c | 341.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 330.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 57c | 278.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 234.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 71c | 214.59$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 212.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 199.86$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 198.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 57c | 194.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 46c | 184.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 182.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 57c | 173.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…5452backed Yes | 46c | 172.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 171.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 45c | 168$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 77c | 167.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 166.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 158.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 157.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…b1f5backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 152.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 149.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 142.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf862…62b0backed Yes | 33c | 141.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 138.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 135.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 132.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 76c | 131.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 130.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…4960backed No | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 34c | 126$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 124.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 122$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 115.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 110.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8732backed Yes | 45c | 101.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 35c | 99.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 98.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 62c | 95.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 52c | 89.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 34c | 89.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 89.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…d518backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 80.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 78.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 78.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 76.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 74.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 74.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 33c | 74.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 41c | 66.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 65.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 64.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 33c | 60.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 58.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 56.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 55.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 34c | 54.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 53.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 53.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 38c | 52.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 51.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…fe1cbacked No | 66c | 50.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 50.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 48.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 69c | 47.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…35afbacked Yes | 32c | 47.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 46.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 46.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.