Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30373b97c6142e346551ab74359828ec28737e79d0d44a67270117011ffdf7ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,359$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 627.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 5c | 489.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 29c | 307.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 32c | 304.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 291.38$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 71c | 269.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 11c | 251.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 219.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 197.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 73c | 193$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 159.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 23c | 151.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 148.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 136.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 134.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 132.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 132.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 129.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed No | 75c | 124.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 33c | 121.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 120.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 26c | 116.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 112.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 21c | 98.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 19c | 95.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 93.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 13c | 91.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…108fbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 21c | 87.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 84.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 26c | 82.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 76.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 73.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 69.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 67.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 27c | 63.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 54.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 44.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 34.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 77c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 67c | 27.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.