Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20985c0158a97f715e97e022f08c1686a5ccec1e00fb175073c07c216de6d92d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 1,251$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.01 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 23c | 891.2$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.49 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 44c | 780.53$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 54c | 740$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.7 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 48c | 718.68$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.7 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked No | 54c | 623.73$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 64c | 597.32$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 11c | 591.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 487.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 54c | 454$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.45 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 28c | 419.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 339.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 68c | 339.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 62c | 324.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 322.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 302.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 293.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 42c | 290.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 47c | 274.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 256.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 55c | 253.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 35c | 235.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 234.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 213.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 49c | 210.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 197.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 47c | 193$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 49c | 185.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 23c | 178.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 15c | 173.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 28c | 169.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 166.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 155.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 154$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 46c | 149.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 61c | 148.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 116.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 110.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 49c | 101.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 52c | 101.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 100.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 91.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 67c | 90.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 86.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 56c | 78.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 57c | 68.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 67.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 57c | 64.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 63.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…e0d3backed No | 48c | 63.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 59.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 58.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 53c | 56.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 43c | 56.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 47c | 55.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 57c | 51.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 45c | 50.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 50.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 46c | 47.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 50c | 44.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 61c | 43.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 56c | 40.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 52c | 40.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 38c | 40.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 40c | 39.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 52c | 38.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 78c | 37.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…b4dfbacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 46c | 36.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 49c | 35.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa243…2bb4backed Yes | 53c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 34.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 45c | 30.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.