Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d4edc7bf9fbadd53d574fb37f2711b50538e2deb3ca2cc2f7541df6cfff3aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,702$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 1,072$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 36c | 1,016$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.19 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 21c | 811.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 592.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 17c | 506.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 302.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 244.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 242.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 230.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 62c | 230.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 13c | 228.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 218.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 14c | 195.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed No | 64c | 178.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 148.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 140.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 138.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 29c | 131.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 14c | 121.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 119.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 39c | 112.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 38c | 108.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 104.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 19c | 103.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 12c | 101.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 98.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 77c | 96.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 96.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 20c | 91.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 59c | 86.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 83.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 21c | 72.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 39c | 70.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 70.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 26c | 69.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 69.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 68.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 55.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…b4dfbacked Yes | 32c | 52.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 55c | 50.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 22c | 49.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 23c | 47.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 36c | 45.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 34c | 36.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 32.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 31.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 44c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…6858backed No | 64c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…b48cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…4c9bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…fd79backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.