Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f4df9bb5e4d1e010e019a8541467021c7d4725fdef58a963ac35334f132244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 2c | 619.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 600.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 18c | 568.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 72c | 506.55$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 484.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 74c | 460.18$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 429.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 21c | 376.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 78c | 323.35$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 8c | 298.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed No | 79c | 267.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 6c | 213.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 27c | 185.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 17c | 179.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 179.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 171.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 7c | 166.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 164.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 163.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 17c | 160.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…eacfbacked Yes | 15c | 160.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 155$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 14c | 154.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 141.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 10c | 139.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 13c | 135.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 16c | 129.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 128.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 10c | 126.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 124.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 112.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 20c | 103.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes | 19c | 89.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 86.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 16c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 80.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 74.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 17c | 74.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 14c | 71.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…8788backed No | 78c | 64.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 30c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 60.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 58.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 21c | 49.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed No | 74c | 49.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 26c | 43.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 42.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 78c | 36.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 74c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 77c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…8f2ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a18ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2f…b741backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 70c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.